Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Delivered to Russia Within Days, States Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.